Cry Me a River

Sympathy votes. How sentimental is Oscar feeling? This is a major question this year. And this question affects at least four races...

1. SUPPORTING ACTOR
Can Morgan Freeman ride "due" sentiment all the way, overcoming the fact that everyone knows he could have given his charming performance in Million Dollar Baby in his sleep? Or will people throw a bone to Sideway's hilarious Church or bow down to the potency of Clive Owen's work (it's not impossible to win for vulgar hateful characters... it's just harder). I've met no one anywhere who doesn't feel that Owen gives less than a great performance --it has a unanimous factor that none of the other performers have when discussing their merits.

2. ACTRESS
Will Hilary Swank ride the sentimentality of playing the sweet and likeable 'underdog' to her second win or will sentiment go the other way entirely. Will voters feel it is cruel to allow Swank to beat Annette Bening twice? Or will voters cast sentiment aside altogether and vote for someone like Imelda Staunton who has near universal raves (see, it's the same problem as Best Supporting Actor)

3 & 4. PICTURE AND DIRECTOR
Do sympathy votes go to Million Dollar Baby now that it's feeling the backlash? Or are sympathy votes unwaveringly for Scorsese who looks like the most shunned world class director to have come out of Hollywood when it comes to Oscar.

If they're feeling sentimental, who does it benefit? The question is more difficult to answer than it first appears.